I looked into Rishi Sunak's eyes and can tell he doesn't believe the Tories can win the election

In a conference centre, in east London’s Docklands, he appeared on stage smiling and waving to pounding drums, telling party members: “I can tell by this reception that you are up for this general election.” It was an energetic opening surrounded by the Cabinet and his wife Akshata Murty.

Just over a month on and the mood has changed rapidly. Sunak’s campaign has hit the buffers due to a series of gaffes and scandals. His decision to leave the D-Day commemorations early has damaged him badly with his core Tory vote, while the gamble-gate furore has sucked all the airtime and energy out of the Conservative campaign.

At a campaign event, with a near identical set up, last night (24 June) Tories were already talking about the next leader. Shortly before the Prime Minister appeared on stage, activists were discussing who is likely to replace him. The balloon has been punctured.

This time, Sunak appeared in affluent Chelsea, on the banks of the River Thames, in west London. The seat, held by former party chairman Greg Hands, has changed boundaries several times, but has been in Conservative control since 2001. 

It should be safe Tory territory, but it is a sign of the party’s struggles that the Prime Minister is being parachuted in to encourage activists to get out and knock on doors. Sunak is very much on the defensive.

Ahead of the speech, journalists were corralled into the spectacular Grade I-listed Chelsea Old Church. As I looked down at the magnificent altar, I wondered if Sunak was seeking divine intervention or trying to take inspiration from Thomas More, Henry VIII’s political fixer, who used the church as a private chapel.

Hacks were then ushered into the community centre next door, where a smattering of Tory activists held placards. Even though the Prime Minister was about to speak, just days before a general election, all the chatter was about who will replace Sunak.

And after an enthusiastic opening, as he shook hands and waved to campaigners, the scale of the defeat appeared to weigh on the Prime Minister’s shoulders. During breaks for applause, a slightly vacant look came over Sunak as he gazed into the distance. His eyes were slightly bloodshot, no doubt a symptom of the late nights and huge strain he’s feeling.

He wheeled out the classic attack lines of Labour putting up everyone’s taxes by £2,000 (Starmer’s party disputes this) and the opposition want to “change the rules” so they are in power for a decade. The biggest cheer from the Tory faithful was not for Sunak’s comments on tax or the cost of living, but when he repeated the maxim that “Keir Starmer doesn’t know what a woman is”.

This is perhaps a sign of how introverted the Tory Party is getting, and how focused it is on culture wars and wedge issues. Sunak only spoke for five minutes before he was whisked off without taking questions from the media. Afterwards Hands and his aides went around asking for help canvassing. A few journalists had to politely decline their services.

I felt as if I was witnessing a party teetering on the brink in real time, with both the Prime Minister and party activists losing hope. Sunak’s re-election could not look further away.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday.