Rishi Sunak speech: the PM is trying to make the general election about a single issue, Rwanda - it won’t work

“Last week – yet again – Labour Peers in the House of Lords contrived to stop the Safety of Rwanda Bill,” he told a gaggle of journalists, including myself, and the assorted TV cameras. “For almost two years our opponents have used every trick in the book to block flights and keep the boats coming.  But enough is enough. No more prevarication. 

“No more delay. Parliament will sit there tonight and vote no matter how late it goes. No ifs, no buts. These flights are going to Rwanda.” The Prime Minister ignored the fact that the Conservatives have a majority in the Lords and could easily pass the bill if its peers showed up, to instead create a wedge with Labour.

“Be in no doubt about the choice that the country will face later this year,” Sunak said. “The Labour Party has no plan. They would have no treaty, no bill and no flights to Rwanda. They are resigned to the idea that you will never fully solve this problem. Their priority is not stopping the boats …but stopping the planes removing people who have no right to be here.”

This, Sunak said, would send a message to criminal gangs “that they can continue their deplorable illegal trade”. He said that it would take around 10 to 12 weeks to get flights off the ground, so if all goes to plan for the government some time in July. 

Sunak also reiterated that his plan was for a general election to take place in the second half of the year, which lines up nicely with the potential Rwanda flights. And his clear message to voters was this - I have a plan on illegal immigration, Labour does not. Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper would say they do have a policy, and it’s to focus on cracking the gangs.

The Prime Minister appears to be hoping to fight the general election on a single issue - immigration - in the same way Boris Johnson was so successful at positioning the 2019 poll around Brexit. This seismic event created a coalition of voters that had not come together before, and are unlikely to combine again.

Ever since then, from Partygate to the mini-Budget and mortgage crash, the Conservatives have done their best to detonate that voting block with scandal after scandal. And as much as Sunak hopes Rwanda can be the glue to stick together the Red Wall and the Blue Wall, all the evidence shows the opposite.

While immigration is the main issue for Tories, the wider public care far more about the cost of living crisis and the health service. NHS waiting lists are still sky-high, while homeowners and renters are still being hit with mortgage spikes. Unfortunately for Sunak, Liz Truss shows little sign of retiring from public life and reminding everyone about the chaos she caused.

This entire plan is also dependent on there being no more successful legal challenges to deportation, and the flights actually working as a deterrent, something which charities and experts have questioned. 

Sunak has said he wants to “stop the boats”, standing in front of a stand saying “stop the boats” next to a TV which says “stop the boats”. If the Prime Minister doesn’t manage to prevent Channel crossings, which is highly likely, the public will judge that he’s failed based on his own promises. 

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.