General Election 2024: How far will the Tories fall as Farage declares himself the new opposition and voters seem to agree

With three weeks to go before voters must make their decision, Sunak warned people against voting for Nigel Farage’s party, as “a vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10”.

Ruth George, 20, a journalism student at the University of Sheffield, said: “People just love Reform UK right now because it's the new UKIP, so they may get a surprising amount of seats in Parliament. However, I don’t think they will necessarily have more seats than the Conservatives because they have they’re a much smaller party, and the Tories are the ones that have the money.

“But I definitely think that the Conservatives won't beat Labour in the election. Even though Rishi Sunak says that voters are giving Keir Starmer a blank check, I actually think people are just fed up with Sunak’s policies and his empty promises.”

Nigel Farage has always made a big issue out of other politicians being out of touch. He is quick to point out that they have little connection with ‘working people’ and he continues to claim that he is different: “I get on with people of all backgrounds, all classes, Rishi Sunak lives in this very, very narrow little world, like so many politicians.”

People seem to agree.

Sales admin Melissa Robinson, 51, from Wakefield, said: “I certainly wouldn't jump over to Reform UK purely and specifically because it's Nigel Farage. And we’ve had a Labour and a Conservative government, but I don't think we're gonna be any better with any of them. With their law degrees and private schools they’ve probably gone through to get there, they’ve obviously not lived in the real world like most of us. So what's the point?

“I'm almost at the point of not voting, but I can always remember my college tutor saying, women fought so that you and I could vote. Don't waste that effort. But whichever way I vote, they're all the same. They promise you the world and it never really happens.”

Nigel Farage has said that the Conservative party is “done” and argued they will be out of power for at least a decade. In fact, recent polling by YouGov has shown the Conservatives in fifth place across voters under 50, behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens.

A 21-year-old biochemistry student from the University of Sheffield, who asked to remain anonymous, said: “I think Reform has just proved how bad of a campaign the Conservatives are doing, that another party that's been quite below for such a long time can just pop up again. It's quite hard to see one of the highest standing political parties drop so low,” she said, referring to the Conservatives. “I know a lot of people who aren't voting in general, wasting their vote because they don't know who to vote for, and don't believe in any of the parties. And that's sad.

“I think it's hard now to keep up with everything that's going on, because so much is happening, that you don't know who to believe and what not to believe. You're wasting votes, you could vote for someone, and the next day you're like, actually I don't want them anymore.”

Left-wing voters are quite familiar with the split vote experience. Many voting left-leaning parties allowed Conservatives to win seats they wouldn’t have had if the other parties had worked together. This time, it is the right that struggles with the issue: those voting for Reform UK have lost all hope in the Conservative government, and so they are unlikely to vote tactically for the Tories.

Shop assistant Susan Jefferson, 47, from Darnall, said: “Reform is the better choice because Nigel Farage would keep his promises more than Keir Starmer says he will. He cares about the British people more than Keir Starmer does because Labour is no longer a working class party. It's basically just a softer version of the Conservatives and they don't actually care about British values, unlike Reform UK.

“But I doubt Reform will win. I think if he did win, he would have to make up something, especially after the milkshake incident or when they were throwing stones at him. I think he’s become resilient after that, and he’s trying to speak for the people rather than Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak, who I think are out of touch with the average person since they're both privately educated.”

As June passes and we begin seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, it seems that Britain is less focused on who will win and more concerned about who will come in second place. With Labour having a huge lead over the other parties, the question really is how low the Conservatives will fall.