The anti-establishment anger which voted for Brexit still exists - and it may soon turn fire on Keir Starmer

It was predicted that Johnson would be in power for a decade, and had caused a permanent realignment of the UK’s political landscape. However, after Johnson’s failure to “level up” the country, along with partygate, Liz Truss’ mini-budget and various other scandals, almost the entire Red Wall and much of the country is set to vote Labour.

However, should he become Prime Minister, Starmer and his troops should not get complacent. Much has been made of Reform UK sucking support from a bedraggled Tory Party, but Nigel Farage is attracting Labour voters as well.

Walking the streets of Chingford, in suburban north-east London at the border with Essex, and Reform UK came up in conversation a lot. Firstly, from tattooed gardener Louie Keene, 52, who told me he was supporting Reform UK to clamp down on small boat crossings.

He said his family used to vote for Labour “when they stood for the working man, but they don’t stand for that any more”. He told me he’s voting Reform as it’s “for the man in the street”.

A 33-year-old woman, who described herself as Indian, said: “I can’t believe I’m saying this, I don’t know why but Nigel Farage is coming across as a nice guy.” She added, almost exasperatedly: “Why is Nigel Farage making sense?”

In the Times Radio and JL Partners focus group in Blyth Valley, many people who were going to vote Labour expressed interest in Reform UK and admiration for Farage for speaking his mind. The News Agents found a similar story in Leigh, Greater Manchester. 

There is a huge sense of apathy and anger at the political class at the moment across the country, something which Farage is able to tap into. A lot of people, angry at the status quo, are right on the edge of voting Reform as a protest vote.

The betting scandal, the idea that politicians are all in it together to make a quick buck, heightens this. Labour may think it benefits them, but in the long run, if nothing changes, it could cause their voting base to fall away quickly.

I asked Labour’s candidate in the South Cotswolds Zoë Billingham, who is also director of the IPPR North think tank, how Starmer can tackle this anger? She said: “In some places it is apathy, but actually I think it’s deeper than that - it’s anger and overwhelm. People have seen we’ve lurched from crisis to crisis over the last 14 years so not only do they doubt politics and politicians, but they think there are so many things going wrong on so many fronts that it’s almost impossible for a government, no matter what political colour, to fix.”

Billingham said Starmer’s attitude of politics being about service could help - and pointed to policies to reform the House of Lords and tackle Covid fraud. She hopes that new MPs will be active to regain the trust of their constituents. Will that be enough to quell the discontent? Only time will tell. 

The anti-establishment instinct, which voted through Brexit and somehow supported Boris Johnson in 2019, still exists. If Farage gets elected, the pressure will ramp up on Starmer and Labour. The Labour leader is certainly aware of this. He said today that there were “important lessons” Britain could learn from the far-right surge in France, like being aware some voters feel “everything’s broken, nothing can be fixed”.  Like the woman on Chingford High Road told me: “Everything is s***, the NHS is f****d - what’s the point in staying in this country?” Over to you then Keir.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday.