School holiday dates and rain: Should we change the academic calendar?

The first and second week of the school holidays should be about unlimited possibilities, with weeks of free time to play with before September comes looming. Instead the possibilities this year are very much limited - you can get away with one "waterproofs and puddle suits" walk with your children every few months, but take it from me that they are much less enthusiastic about planned excursions in the rain every day.

And so we look back in envy at the May and June weather. Remember that? Sunburn if you stayed in the garden too long, warnings issued about making sure children were hydrated and covered in factor 50 on sports days - goodness me it seems a lifetime ago.

Indeed, a petition lodged with the government begged explicitly for that. "Move the school summer holidays forward a month so the children can have decent July weather not miserable August weather," it said. "The current holidays were established so children could help with the harvest in August, they don't do that any more so let's move it to nicer weather with more daylight and fewer wasps. It would also benefit children and parents who take staycations and currently sit looking out at the rain." So wouldn't it be better to capitalise on the good weather and change the timings of the academic year, perhaps falling into line with Scotland where the schools break up at the beginning of July and go back halfway through August? Talk to anyone at the moment and you hear grumbles that July and August are among the wettest months of the year, and that the summer is almost over.

However, we believe what we want to believe. And when it comes to the weather, we have confirmation bias in spades.

When you look at the government's average rainfall figures across the last 20 years, July sees 93mm. But in recent years the figures have veered around - just 37.7mm in the long warm summer of 2020, a damp 144.7mm in 2021, and 68.6mm last year. And lest we forget, last year's record-breaking 40C day was in... July.

Also, while this year we look back fondly at June's sunshine, anyone who has experienced a wet Glastonbury or Isle of Wight festival knows that that month cannot be depended upon for good weather. It's also counter-intuitive that the driest month over the last 20 years - by quite some way - is April, with 69.1mm. That's arid compared to the next driest, June, which has seen on average 82.5mm over the last 20 years, and a surprise to those of us who assume that the Easter bank holiday weekend is going to be a washout.

And maybe thereby hangs the tale. We live on an island which, while thankfully not ravaged by extreme weather, is subject to unpredictable conditions. Despite the best efforts of the Met Office, our weather is essentially unpredictable. And so if the decision was made to change school term-times, no doubt it would chuck it down incessantly during the new holiday dates.

Because you know what? When it comes to the weather, not only do we have confirmation bias in spades, we also have fatalism. It's going to rain regardless tomorrow, but the past was always bathed in sunshine. Pass the anorak...