Ukraine war: low vaccine rate risks surge in Covid amid oxygen shortage and destruction of health system

Millions of Ukrainians fleeing the war with Russia may be at a greater risk of contracting coronavirus due to low vaccination rates, experts warn.

With oxygen running low and people taking shelter in crowded, unventilated basements, the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) warns there is a possibility of a surge in cases at a time when people are unable to access the life-saving care they could need.

Analysis of data sourced from Our World in Data shows almost two-thirds (65%) of Ukrainians are not fully protected against the disease, leaving 28.2 million (35%) vulnerable to infection. In total 15.2 million people are fully vaccinated.

The figures, which are available up to 23 February (the day before the Russian invasion), also show 752,581 booster doses had been administered – meaning just 1.7% have triple protection.

The country has around 7.2 million people aged 65 and over but vaccination figures do not reveal what proportion of this demographic are unvaccinated.

Ukraine has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the whole of Europe but neighbouring countries where refugees have been fleeing to like Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Romania are all also lagging behind in the vaccine rollout.

You can follow how many refugees have entered which country in our interactive map here.

Almost half of Russia’s population is protected against coronavirus with 49.6% fully vaccinated while Belarus has fully vaccinated 49.1% and Romania has fully vaccinated 42.2% of its citizens. Moldova has fully vaccinated just 26.1% of its population.

Poland, which has accepted the greatest proportion of refugees with almost 2 million people entering since 24 February, has vaccinated the greatest proportion of its population among Ukraine’s neighbours, with 59% fully protected.

In comparison the UK has fully vaccinated 72.2% of the population.

DEC has warned that Ukraine risks a surge in infections at an extremely dangerous time.

Madara Hettiararchchi, director of programmes and accountability at DEC, said: "The conflict in Ukraine is destroying vital infrastructure including hospitals and the WHO has warned that supplies of medical oxygen are falling dangerously low.

“The relatively low vaccination rate in the country, combined with people being forced to take cover in crowded, poorly ventilated basements and shelters, risks a surge in coronavirus cases at a time when people will not be able to access basic but life-saving medical care.

“Refugees arriving in neighbouring countries are also staying in crowded reception centres and local healthcare capacity may struggle to keep up.”

The latest figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees show 3.2 million people have now fled the country as a result of the war.

Ms Hettiararchchi added: "DEC member charities are providing medical care to refugees fleeing into neighbouring countries, while inside Ukraine the Ukrainian Red Cross and International Committee of the Red Cross are providing first aid and delivering medical supplies to hospitals."

Support people fleeing the devastating conflict in Ukraine: donate to the DEC appeal

Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) charities and their local partners are in Ukraine and in neighbouring countries providing food, water, shelter and medical assistance. Learn more and donate what you can today

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